You're part of ThetaGang. You sell premium consistently, you understand theta decay, and your win rate is high. But here's an uncomfortable question: do you actually know what you're making? Not "around $X" — the exact number, measured correctly, compared against the capital you had at risk?
Most theta sellers don't. Here are the three ways most people deceive themselves when tracking their results — and what accurate tracking actually looks like.
The 3 Tracking Mistakes ThetaGang Traders Make
Mistake 1: Reporting Gross Premium as Profit
When you say "I made $1,200 in premium this month," what did you actually make? Gross premium isn't profit. Real profit is gross premium minus commissions and fees, minus buy-to-close costs on positions you managed early, minus the unrealized loss on any assigned shares you're still holding, and minus the opportunity cost on capital locked up during assignment periods. All of those subtract from your number, often by 30-50% of the gross figure.
Mistake 2: Celebrating Win Rate Without Context
A 90% win rate is genuinely impressive — unless each of your wins is $150 and each loss is $1,500. Risk-adjusted performance means looking at your average P&L per trade alongside your win rate. A 70% win rate with a 2:1 win-to-loss ratio earns more money than a 90% win rate with a 1:5 win-to-loss ratio, and manages risk significantly better. Track both numbers together, not win rate in isolation.
Mistake 3: Using Simple Annualization
See our full breakdown of this mistake in the annualized ROI guide. The short version: multiplying your best week by 52 overstates actual annualized returns by 30-50% for most wheel traders once idle periods and assignment management time are accounted for properly.
What Should You Actually Be Tracking?
| Metric | Formula | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Net Premium | Gross − Fees − BTC costs | Your actual income, not an estimate |
| Return on Capital | Net P&L ÷ Max Capital at Risk | Capital efficiency across campaigns |
| ACB per Share | (Assignment Cost − All Premiums) ÷ Shares | True break-even for assigned positions |
| Average DTE at Open | Average of all STO expirations | Risk profile consistency check |
| Win Rate | Profitable Trades ÷ Total Trades | Strategy validation over time |
| Average Win ÷ Average Loss | Avg winning trade ÷ Avg losing trade | Expected value per trade |
Accurate tracking is the difference between knowing you have a profitable strategy and just hoping you do. Build your honest performance dashboard with OptionWheelTracker →